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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.