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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."